Hydrologic characterization of the Upper Ayeyarwaddy River Basin and the impact of climate change

• Published in: Journal of water and climate change Vol. 13; no. 7; pp. 2577 - 2596
• Main Authors: Gurung, Pabitra, Dhungana, Shashwat, Kyaw Kyaw, Aung, Bharati, Luna
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London IWA Publishing 01-07-2022
• Subjects: Annual precipitation; Basins; Climate change; Climate change scenarios; Environmental impact; Evapotranspiration; Future climates; General circulation models; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrologic models; Hydrologic regime; Hydrologic studies; Hydrology; Mountains; Precipitation; Rainy season; River basins; Rivers; Seasonal variability; Seasonal variation; Seasonal variations; Seasons; Soil water; Stream flow; Wet season; Southeast Asia; Myanmar (Burma); China; India
• ISSN: 2040-2244; 2408-9354
• DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2022.407

This study characterizes the hydrological regime of the Upper Ayeyarwaddy River Basin (UARB) of Myanmar under current and future climate change scenarios by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model simulation results show that the annual precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and water yields are 1,578, 524 and 1,010 mm, respectively. These will increase by 13–28%, 11–24% and 42–198% under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, for the future. There is seasonal variability across the cool, hot and rainy seasons in the agro-ecological regions – mountains, hills and inland plains. As in other Asian regions, the model shows that the wet (rainy) season is becoming wetter and the dry (cool) season is becoming drier in the UARB too.