From 2008–2011 Great Recession to COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of resilience metrics in European regions

• Published in: Empirica Vol. 51; no. 4; pp. 1037 - 1073
• Main Authors: Ileanu, Bogdan-Vasile, Pana, Adrian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01-11-2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: COVID-19; Econometrics; Economic conditions; Economic crisis; Economics; Economics and Finance; European Integration; Great Recession; Industrial Organization; Interest rates; International Economics; Labor market; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics; Original Paper; Pandemics; Phillips curve; Public Finance; Recessions; Recovery; Regions; Resilience; Resistance; Unemployment; Usefulness; COVID-19; Cox regression; ROC curve; Economic resilience; Unemployment; Composite index
• ISSN: 0340-8744; 1573-6911
• DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09621-3

We aim to clarify the usefulness of different measures of economic resilience in the context of global shocks. In relation to the Great Recession, Oil& European migrant crises, and COVID-19, we compute and validate from a statistical point of view, then characterize five metrics on 317 NUTS2 regions and 21 years. ROC curves and Cox regression compare them by the capacity to predict the post-shock state. Heterogenous behavior characterizes resistance, recovery, and loss. Furthermore, the non-linear resistance performs best in future state prediction, while the composite index has the lowest efficiency as a predictor of the regions’ recovery.