Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040

• Published in: Foresight (Cambridge) Vol. 26; no. 1; pp. 59 - 83
• Main Authors: Zackery, Ali, Taheri Demneh, Mohsen, Ebadi Nejad, Maryam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bradford Emerald Publishing Limited 16-01-2024; Emerald Group Publishing Limited
• Subjects: Cities; Colonization; Developing countries; Economic analysis; Ignorance; LDCs; Narratives; Politicization; Research methodology; Stakeholders; Urban areas; Urban planning; Value; Iran; Isfahan Iran; Scenario development; Scenario-development; City foresight; The Global South; Future colonization
• ISSN: 1463-6689; 1465-9832; 1463-6689
• DOI: 10.1108/FS-01-2023-0004

Purpose
Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.
Findings
Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.
Originality/value
The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.