Analyzing the differential effects of COVID-19 on export flows: a focus on customs procedures

• Published in: Empirica Vol. 51; no. 4; pp. 977 - 1000
• Main Authors: Derindag, Omer Faruk, Yasar, Zaim Reha, Aslan, Caglayan, Parmaksiz, Salih
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01-11-2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Borders; Consumer goods; COVID-19; Econometrics; Economics; Economics and Finance; Effects; Electronic commerce; Emerging markets; European Integration; Export performance; Exports; Global economy; Industrial Organization; International Economics; International trade; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics; Original Paper; Pandemics; Public Finance; Resilience; Social life & customs; Tariffs; COVID-19; Simplified customs procedure declaration; L81; Export; E-customs; F1; Differences in differences; Cross-border e-commerce
• ISSN: 0340-8744; 1573-6911
• DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09634-y

COVID-19 has not only dramatically affected the ordinary course of social life, but also caused an idiosyncratic downturn in the global economy and created multidimensional effects on international trade and Cross-Border E-Commerce merchandise flows. This paper provides unique empirical evidence of how the consequences of the pandemic have distinctively diverged on conventional and simplified customs clearance, which includes Cross-Border E-Commerce orders, differed significantly. The Difference-in-differences (DiD) and Causal Inference estimates for the 2019:01-2021:06 interval suggest that simplified customs clearance shows more resilience to COVID-19 effects relative to conventional customs clearance and reduces the negative impact of COVID-19 influences on export performance in the case of Turkey. The fundamental outcomes remain consistent when the sample includes emerging markets and when the analysis employs the export of consumer goods as opposed to total exports in the conventional mode. Overall, the findings highlight the significant role of E-Commerce and simplified customs processes in enhancing export performance.