Spatial mapping of dengue fever prevalence and its association with geo-climatic factors in Lahore, Pakistan

• Published in: Environmental monitoring and assessment Vol. 196; no. 9; p. 812
• Main Authors: Rehman, Wafa, Nasar-u-Minallah, Muhammad, Butt, Ibtisam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01-09-2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Climate; Climatic conditions; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue fever; Disease hot spots; Disease Outbreaks; Disease transmission; Distribution patterns; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecology; Ecotoxicology; Endemism; Environment; Environmental Management; Epidemics; Geographic Information Systems; Geographical information systems; Health services; Hot spots; Human diseases; Humans; Information systems; Land surface temperature; Land use; Landsat; Monitoring/Environmental Analysis; Monsoon rainfall; Monsoons; Normalized difference vegetative index; Outbreaks; Pakistan - epidemiology; Parameter identification; Plant cover; Population density; Precipitation; Prevalence; Public health; Remote sensing; Satellite data; Satellite imagery; Spatial distribution; Surface temperature; Temperature requirements; Temporal distribution; Vector-borne diseases; Vegetation; Vegetation cover; Vegetation index; Viral diseases; Pakistan; Lahore Pakistan; Geo-climatic factors; Spatial Mapping; Dengue Fever; Risk Mapping; Lahore
• ISSN: 0167-6369; 1573-2959; 1573-2959
• DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12967-7

A vector-borne disease of concern for global public health, dengue fever has been spreading its endemicity and several cases in recent years, particularly in Lahore Pakistan. Dengue transmission is influenced by geo-climatic conditions. This study aimed to map the spatial prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore and its association with geo-climatic factors during the epidemic of the year 2021. In this study, geo-climatic factors that could potentially encourage the growth of the virus are chosen for this study, and their temporal and spatial changeability relate to dengue cases. The objective of this study is to use meteorological, satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to map dengue outbreaks and identify the risk-prone areas by relating geo-climatic factors with dengue outbreaks. The dengue patients and their locations data were collected from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Lahore. This study uses Google Earth and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRs images to extract geo-climatic and land use parameters. The dot density maps technique was used to represent the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue cases. The hotspot analysis was applied to show the hotspots of dengue cases in district Lahore at the Union Council (UC) level. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), built-up area, population density, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) are the factors employed. In this study, correlation was performed to test the significance between precipitation and the prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore. The results show that the incidence and prevalence of dengue fever month-wise at the UC level in Lahore. The distribution pattern of dengue outbreaks in the Lahore area and its demographic factors were found to be associated. It concludes that the increase in the spread of dengue fever is associated with the monsoon rains. The prevalence of dengue is associated with water bodies and high land surface temperature, but it does not represent any significant relation with vegetation cover and land use in Lahore during the year 2021. The study pinpointed the locations that are most susceptible and require care to prevent such outbreaks in the future.