Dynamic assessment of project portfolio risks from the life cycle perspective

• Published in: Computers & industrial engineering Vol. 176; p. 108922
• Main Authors: Zhang, Bingbing, Bai, Libiao, Zhang, Kaimin, Kang, Shuyun, Zhou, Xinyu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01-02-2023
• Subjects: Dynamic Bayesian network; Fuzzy set theory; Life cycle; Project portfolio risks; Risk assessment; Life cycle; Fuzzy set theory; Dynamic Bayesian network; Risk assessment; Project portfolio risks
• ISSN: 0360-8352; 1879-0550
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cie.2022.108922

•Project portfolio risks are assessed dynamically from the life cycle perspective.•A fuzzy-dynamic Bayesian network is proposed to assess project portfolio risks.•Risks are assessed considering causality and time dependency.•The critical risks are identified at different stage.•The inherent characteristics of dynamic changes in risks are revealed.
Project portfolio risks (PPRs) are mostly considered in terms of interdependency between projects, ignoring the time dependency and causality between risks. This may lead to inappropriate risk assessments and reduced efficacy in risk treatments. This study aims to dynamically assess PPRs from the life cycle perspective to support managers in planning risk treatment actions more effectively. A fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network (F-DBN) is applicable in this scenario. First, PPRs are identified by considering project interdependency. Second, the causality and time dependency between the PPRs are modeled using an F-DBN. Then, the dynamic variation characteristics of the PPRs in the project portfolio (PP) life cycle are revealed. Finally, a numerical example is adopted to validate the applicability and effectiveness of the model. Based on the results, the key PPRs at different stages are identified, and the inherent characteristics with dynamic changes of those key risks are further revealed. The results of the analysis provide insights for PP managers to implement corresponding risk-reduction strategies.