Investigating the Impact of Social Awareness and Rapid Test on A COVID-19 Transmission Model

• Published in: Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4; no. 1; pp. 46 - 64
• Main Authors: Balya, Muhammad Afief, Dewi, Bunga Oktaviani, Lestari, Faza Indah, Ratu, Gayatri, Rosuliyana, Hanna, Windyhani, Tama, Fadhlia, Zawir Rifqa, Samiadji, Brenda M., Aldila, Dipo, Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A., Shahzad, Muhammad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society 14-08-2021
• Subjects: basic reproduction number; cost effectiveness analysis; covid-19; optimal control; rapid test; social awereness; transcritical bifurcation
• ISSN: 2549-2896; 2549-2896
• DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.5

In this article, we propose and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission among a closed population, with social awareness and rapid test intervention as the control variables. For this, we have constructed the model using a compartmental system of the ordinary differential equations. Dynamical analysis regarding the existence and local stability of equilibrium points is conducted rigorously. Our analysis shows that COVID-19 will disappear from the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one, and persist if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In addition, we have shown a trans-critical bifurcation phenomenon based on our proposed model when the basic reproduction number equals one. From the elasticity analysis, we have observed that rapid testing is more promising in reducing the basic reproduction number as compared to a media campaign to improve social awareness on COVID-19. Using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), the characterization of our optimal control problem is derived analytically and solved numerically using the forward-backward iterative algorithm. Our cost-effectiveness analysis shows that using rapid test and media campaigns partially are the best intervention strategy to reduce the number of infected humans with the minimum cost of intervention. If the intervention is to be implemented as a single intervention, then using solely the rapid test is a more promising and low-cost option in reducing the number of infected individuals vis-a-vis a media campaign to increase social awareness as a single intervention.