Recent and near-future changes in precipitation-extreme indices over the Croatian Adriatic coast

• Published in: Climate research Vol. 61; no. 2; pp. 157 - 176
• Main Authors: Patarcic, Mirta, Gajic-Capka, Marjana, Cindric, Ksenija, Brankovic, Cedo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 23-09-2014
• Subjects: MED, Adriatic Sea; Europe, Mediterranean Region
• ISSN: 0936-577X; 1616-1572
• DOI: 10.3354/cr01250

Five indices of extreme precipitation are analyzed over the Croatian Adriatic region on a seasonal and annual basis from 19 meteorological stations and a 3-member ensemble of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) simulations in the reference and the near-future climate. Observed wet extremes exhibit large values in the areas close to the coastal mountains. Inter-annual variability in the number of very wet days (R95) and the fraction of precipitation associated with very wet days (R9ST) is relatively large in all seasons, indicating a variable synoptic activity over the Adriatic region from one year to the next, as well as variable intense showers in the summer. The projected changes in the mean and indices of extreme precipitation in the near future are weak overall, except in the autumn, in both the RegCM3 ensemble and selected ENSEMBLES models. Although the Mediterranean region is characterized as one of the regions most responsive to climate change, our results indicate that over the eastern Adriatic region, significant changes may not occur in the near future.