Larval occurrence prediction of Dendrolimus punctatus based on fuzzy integrated evaluation method

• Published in: Entomological research Vol. 54; no. 7
• Main Authors: Wang, Guo‐Qing, Xu, Yue, Wu, Xiao‐Meng, Qian, Guang‐Jing, Cheng, Xian, Zou, Yun‐Ding, Zhang, Guo‐Qing, Fang, Guo‐Fei, Zhou, Xia‐Zhi, Bi, Shou‐Dong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01-07-2024
• Subjects: accumulative amount; Dendrolimus punctatus; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; Mathematical models; Overwintering; prediction
• ISSN: 1738-2297; 1748-5967
• DOI: 10.1111/1748-5967.12753

To improve the prediction accuracy of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae of overwintering, first and second generation and to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of D. punctatus, six mathematical models of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to predict accumulative amount with the data of 1989–2014. The cumulative amount for the overwintering and the first generation was predicted in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The forecasted results of six models were all level 1, which was consistent with the actual results. Five forecasted results of six models and the actual results were level 1. The actual accumulative amount of D. punctatus for the second generation was level 1 in 2015, 2016, and 2017, which were consistent with the six models' forecasted results.