WRF’s microphysics options on the temporal variation in the accuracy of cluster of village level medium range rainfall forecast in Tamil Nadu

• Published in: Journal of agrometeorology Vol. 24; no. 2
• Main Authors: GA. DHEEBAKARAN, K. P. RAGUNATH, S. KOKILAVANI, S. P. RAMANATHAN, V. GEETHALAKSHMI, POORANISELVI
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Association of agrometeorologists 01-06-2022
• Subjects: Accuracy; Medium Range Weather Forecast; Microphysics; Verification; WRF
• ISSN: 0972-1665; 2583-2980
• DOI: 10.54386/jam.v24i2.1601

Timely and accurate medium range weather information is critical to conquer the impact of highly dynamic next few days’ weather on the farming. Advances in weather forecast models, as well as their increased resolution, have resulted in more accurate and realistic forecasts. An attempt was made during 2019 – 2021 at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore to develop cluster of village level (@ 3km resolution) Medium Range Weather Forecast (MRWF) for Tamil Nadu with higher accuracy. In this study, Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF v4.2.1) with four microphysics viz., Kessler, WSM3, WSM5, WSM6 schemes were tested for Tamil Nadu during CWP, HWP, SWM and NEM 2020. The MRWF generated from the WRF model v4.2.1 with WSM3 had better BSF, higher Forecast Accuracy Index (FAI) and Forecast Usability Percent (FUP) for Tamil Nadu followed by Kessler scheme. The WSM5 and WSM6 were poor performer during the study. In general, CWP had higher FAI followed by HWP, NEM & SWM. The FAI from WSM3 was 0.65 - 0.74 during NEM and 0.55 - 0.69 during SWM. Among the season, the MRWF generated during SWM were over forecasted the rainfall quantity, where the NEM and HWP had better rainfall forecast nearing actuals. The FUP was higher in NEM followed by CWP, SWM & HWP, which was 57 – 88 per cent during NEM and 46 – 82 per cent during SWM. A decreasing trend in the quantitative FUP was observed with increase in lead times, irrespective of the microphysics and seasons. Finally, the study concluded that the accuracy of village level medium range rainfall forecasts from WRF model v4.2.1 varied temporally by season and the WSM3 microphysics option having superiority in all seasons.