Multi-scenario simulation and spatial pattern optimization of supply and demand matching of ecosystem services in coal resource-based cities

• Published in: Zi yuan ke xue Vol. 46; no. 10; pp. 2078 - 2091
• Main Authors: Li, MING, Jiang, CHANG, Cheng, LI
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: Science Press, PR China 01-10-2024
• Subjects: coal resource-based cities|ecosystem services|land use change|plus model|supply-demand matching|multi-scenario simulation|huainan city
• ISSN: 1007-7588
• DOI: 10.18402/resci.2024.10.13

[Objective] Mining and urbanization have transformed the ecological and socioeconomic aspects of coal resource-based cities. This study aimed to measure the spatial characteristics of ecosystem services supply and demand matching in coal resource-based cities based on the urban-mining-rural tri-structure and to simulate future scenarios, and constructed the ecological protection and urban development pattern of Huainan City based on the supply and demand of ecosystem services. [Methods] This study focused on Huainan, a typical mature coal resource-based city in Anhui Province. Using land use data from 2005 to 2020, the PLUS model simulated future land changes in Huainan under four scenarios: natural, urban development, mining development, and ecological protection. The InVEST model then evaluated the supply-demand matching of six ecosystem services for 2035. [Results] (1) By 2035, the natural scenario increased construction land, while other lands decreased. Urban development significantly expanded urban land. Mining development boosted mining and subsidence areas. Ecological protection enhanced cropland, forest, grass, and water areas and construction land increase slowly. (2) Urban and mining scenarios improved matching for carbon sequestration and erosion prevention compared to the natural scenario., while ecological protection scenario enhanced water production, recreation and tourism, water purification, and food supply. (3) Urban development scenario expanded low matching degree areas but stimulated economic growth, whereas ecological protection scenario improved overall supply-demand balance and increased ecological land [Conclusion] The ecological protection scenario optimized supply-demand matching, while urban development degraded it but stimulated the economic growth of the Huainan City. The economic protection pattern of “one axis, three corridors, and multiple cores” and the urban development system of “one main, one auxiliary, and multiple nodes” are constructed. This study offers a foundation for balanced development in coal resource-based cities.