Comparison of artificial neural network and box-Jenkins models to predict the number of patients with hypertension in Kalar

• Published in: Ibn Al-Haitham Journal for Pure and Applied Sciences Vol. 33; no. 4; pp. 110 - 121
• Main Author: Ahmad, Layla A. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: بغداد، العراق جامعة بغداد، كلية التربية ابن الهيثم 20-10-2020; University of Baghdad
• Subjects: Hypertension, time series, autoregressive-integrated-moving average model, artificial neural networks; ارتفاع ضغط الدم; الشبكات العصبية; المرضى; تحليل السلاسل الزمنية
• ISSN: 1609-4042; 2521-3407
• DOI: 10.30526/33.4.2516

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is widely used in many complex applications. Artificial neural network is a statistical intelligent technique resembling the characteristic of the human neural network. The prediction of time series from the important topics in statistical sciences to assist administrations in the planning and make the accurate decisions, so the aim of this study is to analysis the monthly hypertension in Kalar for the period (January 2011- June 2018) by applying an autoregressive –integrated- moving average model (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks and choose the best and most efficient model for patients with hypertension in Kalar through the comparison between neural networks and Box- Jenkins models on a data set for predict. Comparisons between the models has been performed using Criterion indicator Akaike information Criterion, mean square of error, root mean square of error, and mean olute percentage error, concluding that the prediction for patients with hypertension by using artificial neural networks model is the best.