Patterns and efficiency of fossil energy trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road

• Published in: Zi yuan ke xue Vol. 46; no. 9; pp. 1836 - 1851
• Main Authors: Pengyan, ZHANG, Yinghui, CHANG, Yu, LIU, Jinbing, ZHANG, Zhenyue, LIU
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: Science Press, PR China 01-09-2024
• Subjects: energy trade|trade efficiency|survival analysis model|stochastic frontier gravity model|the belt and road
• ISSN: 1007-7588
• DOI: 10.18402/resci.2024.09.13

[Objective] The Belt and Road Initiative is the core of China’s foreign policy and future opening-up and international cooperation. It is of great significance to analyze the pattern and efficiency of fossil energy trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road to promote the high-quality development of energy along the Belt and Road and ensure China’s energy security. [Methods] Based on the fossil energy trade data of China’s import countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2020 in the CHRTD resource trade database, this study explored the spatial and temporal change patterns and efficiency of fossil energy trade between China and these countries based on the ordered clustering method, survival analysis model, and stochastic frontier gravity model. [Results] The main results are as follows: From 2000 to 2020, China’s fossil energy import experienced obviously different stages, the number of trading countries was increasing, and the import volume was increasing year by year. Among them, the proportion of natural gas imports increased significantly; energy trade was relatively stable, and the survival rate of trade relations was high, but there were still some low energy trade activities. GDP, economic structure, and spatial distance were important factors that affected China’s energy imports. Energy import efficiency was generally low, and high-value countries was in small number and spatially scattered. Among the energy sources where the time-varying model is applicable, the trade efficiency of coal imports was decreasing year by year, while the import value and volume of natural gas were on the rise. [Conclusion] China’s fossil energy import trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road has gradually deepened, but the overall trade efficiency is still low. Further improving regional connectivity and formulating more refined trade management policies are important ways to reduce energy trade risks.