Development and validation of multivariable prediction models for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD

• Published in: BMJ open Vol. 11; no. 11; p. e049740
• Main Authors: Sperger, John, Shah, Kushal S, Lu, Minxin, Zhang, Xian, Ungaro, Ryan C, Brenner, Erica J, Agrawal, Manasi, Colombel, Jean-Frédéric, Kappelman, Michael D, Kosorok, Michael R
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England British Medical Journal Publishing Group 12-11-2021; BMJ Publishing Group LTD; BMJ Publishing Group
• Series: Original research
• Subjects: Adult; Body mass index; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Data collection; Datasets; Epidemiology; Ethnicity; Female; Gastroenterology and Hepatology; Gender; Hospitalization; Humans; Inflammatory bowel disease; Inflammatory Bowel Diseases; Intensive Care Units; Male; Middle Aged; Patients; Pediatrics; Race; Retrospective Studies; SARS-CoV-2; statistics & research methods; Steroids; Surveillance; Variables; United States > US; COVID-19; statistics & research methods; inflammatory bowel disease
• ISSN: 2044-6055; 2044-6055
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049740

ObjectivesDevelop an individualised prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).Design and settingThis study developed and validated prognostic penalised logistic regression models using reports to the international Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease voluntary registry from March to October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported 13 March–15 September 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported 16 September–20 October 2020).ParticipantsWe included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years (SD 18), 50.2% male). All submitted cases after removing duplicates were included.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 related: (1) Hospitalisation+: composite outcome of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (2) Intensive Care Unit+ (ICU+): composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (3) Death. We assessed the resulting models’ discrimination using the area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curves and reported the corresponding 95% CIs.ResultsOf the submitted cases, a total of 633 (24%) were hospitalised, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for Hospitalisation+, 0.88 (0.82 to 0.95) for ICU+ and 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for Death. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use and male gender were associated with a higher risk of death, while the use of biological therapies was associated with a lower risk.ConclusionsPrognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for COVID-19-related adverse outcomes in a population of patients with IBD. A free online risk calculator (https://covidibd.org/covid-19-risk-calculator/) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to COVID-19 with patients with IBD.