Migration patterns, friendship networks, and the diaspora: the potential of Facebook Social Connectedness Index to anticipate displacement patterns induced by Russia invasion of Ukraine in the European Union

• Main Authors: Minora, Umberto, Belmonte, Martina, Bosco, Claudio, Johnston, Drew, Giraudy, Eugenia, Iacus, Stefano, Sermi, Francesco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 05-09-2022
• Subjects: Computer Science - Social and Information Networks; Physics - Physics and Society
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2209.01833

The conflict in Ukraine is causing large-scale displacement in Europe and in
the World. Based on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
estimates, more than 7 million people fled the country as of 5 September 2022.
In this context, it is extremely important to anticipate where these people are
moving so that national to local authorities can better manage challenges
related to their reception and integration. This work shows how innovative data
from social media can provide useful insights on conflict-induced migration
flows. In particular, we explore the potential of Facebook's Social
Connectedness Index (SCI) for predicting migration flows in the context of the
war in Ukraine, building on previous research findings that the presence of a
diaspora network is one of the major migration drivers. To do so, we first
evaluate the relationship between the Ukrainian diaspora and the number of
refugees from Ukraine registered for Temporary Protection or similar national
schemes as a proxy of migratory flows into the EU. We find a very strong
correlation between the two (Pearson's r=0.94, p<0.0001), which indicates that
the diaspora is attracting the people fleeing the war, who tend to reach their
compatriots, in particular in the countries where the Ukrainian immigration was
more a recent phenomenon. Second, we compare Facebook's SCI with available
official data on diaspora at regional level in Europe. Our results suggest that
the index, along with other readily available covariates, is a strong predictor
of the Ukrainian diaspora at regional scale. Finally, we discuss the potential
of Facebook's SCI to provide timely and spatially detailed information on human
diaspora for those countries where this information might be missing or
outdated, and to complement official statistics for fast policy response during
conflicts.