A modular modelling framework for hypotheses testing in the simulation of urbanisation

• Main Authors: Cottineau, Clementine, Reuillon, Romain, Chapron, Paul, Coyrehourcq, Sebastien Rey, Pumain, Denise
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 25-08-2015
• Subjects: Physics - Physics and Society
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1509.01200

Systems 2015, 3(4), 348-377 In this paper, we present a modelling experiment developed to study systems
of cities and processes of urbanisation in large territories over long time
spans. Building on geographical theories of urban evolution, we rely on
agent-based models to 1/ formalise complementary and alternative hypotheses of
urbanisation and 2/ explore their ability to simulate observed patterns in a
virtual laboratory. The paper is therefore divided into two sections : an
overview of the mechanisms implemented to represent competing hypotheses used
to simulate urban evolution; and an evaluation of the resulting model
structures in their ability to simulate - efficiently and parsimoniously - a
system of cities (the Former Soviet Union) over several periods of time (before
and after the crash of the USSR). We do so using a modular framework of
model-building and evolutionary algorithms for the calibration of several model
structures. This project aims at tackling equifinality in systems dynamics by
confronting different mechanisms with similar evaluation criteria. It enables
the identification of the best-performing models with respect to the chosen
criteria by scanning automatically the parameter along with the space of model
structures (as combinations of modelled dynamics).