Beyond Valence in the Perception of Likelihood The Role of Emotion Specificity

• Published in: Journal of personality and social psychology Vol. 78; no. 3; pp. 397 - 416
• Main Authors: DeSteno, David, Petty, Richard E, Wegener, Duane T, Rucker, Derek D
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Psychological Association 01-03-2000
• Subjects: Analysis of Variance; Anger; Attitudes; Biological and medical sciences; Cognition; Cognition & reasoning; Cues; Emotions; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Happiness; Human; Humans; Imagination; Information; Judgment; Linear Models; Mental Recall; Models, Psychological; Ohio; Prediction; Probability; Psychological Theory; Psychology; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry; Psychology. Psychophysiology; Sadness; Social attribution, perception and cognition; Social psychology; Ohio; Human; Mood; Memory; Information processing; Probability; Emotion emotionality; Personality; Social cognition; Judgment
• ISSN: 0022-3514; 1939-1315
• DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.78.3.397

Positive and negative moods have been shown to increase likelihood estimates of future events matching these states in valence (e.g.,
E. J. Johnson & A. Tversky, 1983
). In the present article, 4 studies provide evidence that this congruency bias (a) is not limited to valence but functions in an emotion-specific manner, (b) derives from the informational value of emotions, and (c) is not the inevitable outcome of likelihood assessment under heightened emotion. Specifically, Study 1 demonstrates that sadness and anger, 2 distinct, negative emotions, differentially bias likelihood estimates of sad and angering events. Studies 2 and 3 replicate this finding in addition to supporting an emotion-as-information (cf.
N. Schwarz & G. L. Clore, 1983
), as opposed to a memory-based, mediating process for the bias. Finally, Study 4 shows that when the source of the emotion is salient, a reversal of the bias can occur given greater cognitive effort aimed at accuracy.