GIS-based probabilistic mapping of landslide hazard using a three-dimensional deterministic model

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 33; no. 2; pp. 265 - 282
• Main Authors: MOWEN XIE, ESAKI, Tetsuro, GUOYUN ZHOU
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer 01-10-2004; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Geographic information systems; Geological hazards; Landslides; Landslides & mudslides; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Remote sensing; Safety; Slope stability; Stability analysis; Studies; natural hazards maps; Monte Carlo analysis; probability; simulation; mathematical models; geographic information systems; Geographic Information Systems (GIS); cartography; three-dimensional slope stability; rupture; slope unit; safety; landslides; three-dimensional models; failure probability; slope angle; landslide hazard; slope stability; Monte Carlo simulation
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1023/b:nhaz.0000037036.01850.0d

Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-based three-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slope unit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard using the 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slip surface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizing the 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation. The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using an approximate method in which the distributions of c, 0 and the 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution. The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionally and probabilistically mapping landslide hazard.