Culture and Probability Judgment Accuracy The Influence of Holistic Reasoning

• Published in: Journal of cross-cultural psychology Vol. 42; no. 6; pp. 1054 - 1065
• Main Authors: Lechuga, Julia, Wiebe, John S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01-08-2011; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Accuracy; American culture; American people; Bilingualism; Confidence; Cross Cultural Studies; Cross-cultural analysis; Cross-national analysis; Crosscultural studies; Cultural Differences; Cultural groups; Culture; Decision making; English language; Hispanic Americans; Hispanic culture; Judgement; Judgment; Knowledge; Mexican Americans; Mexican people; Overconfidence; Priming; Probability; Probability judgments; Self-perception; United States > US; Mexico; priming; latinos; holistic reasoning; culture; probability judgment accuracy
• ISSN: 0022-0221; 1552-5422
• DOI: 10.1177/0022022111407914

A well-established phenomenon in the judgment and decision-making tradition is the overconfidence one places in the amount of knowledge that one possesses. Overconfidence or probability judgment accuracy varies not only individually but also across cultures. However, research efforts to explain cross-cultural variations in the overconfidence phenomenon have seldom been made. In Study 1, the authors compared the probability judgment accuracy of U.S. Americans (N = 108) and Mexican participants (N = 100). In Study 2, they experimentally primed culture by randomly assigning English/Spanish bilingual Mexican Americans (N = 195) to response language. Results of both studies replicated the cross-cultural variation of probability judgment accuracy previously observed in other cultural groups. U.S. Americans displayed less overconfidence when compared to Mexicans. These results were then replicated in bilingual participants, when culture was experimentally manipulated with language priming. Holistic reasoning did not account for the cross-cultural variation of overconfidence. Suggestions for future studies are discussed.