Back to the future: Testing different scenarios for the next supercontinent gathering

• Published in: Global and planetary change Vol. 169; pp. 133 - 144
• Main Authors: Davies, Hannah S., Green, J.A. Mattias, Duarte, João C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01-10-2018
• ISSN: 0921-8181; 1872-6364
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.07.015

The theory of plate tectonics and the discovery of large scale, deep-time cycles, such as the Supercontinent cycle and Wilson cycle, has contributed to the identification of several supercontinents in Earth's history. Using the rules of plate tectonic theory, and the dynamics of subduction zones and mantle convection, it is possible to envisage scenarios for the formation of the next supercontinent, which is believed to occur around 200–300 Ma into the future. Here, we explore the four main proposed scenarios for the formation of the next supercontinent by constructing them, using GPlates, in a novel and standardised way. Each scenario undergoes different modes of Wilson and Supercontinent cycles (i.e., introversion, extroversion, orthoversion, and combination), illustrating that the relationship between them is not trivial and suggesting that these modes should be treated as end-members of a spectrum of possibilities. While modelling the future has limitations and assumptions, the construction of the four future supercontinents here has led to new insights into the mechanisms behind Wilson and Supercontinent cycles. For example, their relationship can be complex (in terms of being of the same or different order, or being in or out of phase with each other) and the different ways they can interact may led to different outcomes of large-scale mantle reorganization. This work, when combined with geodynamical reconstructions since the Mesozoic allows the simulation of the entire present-day Supercontinent cycle and the respectively involved Wilson cycles. This work has the potential to be used as the background for a number of studies, it was just recently used in tidal modelling experiments to test the existence of a Supertidal cycle associated with the Supercontinent cycle.
•We are presently halfway through a supercontinent cycle.•A new supercontinent is predicted to form in 250 million years.•We present four scenarios for the next supercontinent.