Past and future forcing of Beaufort Sea coastal change

• Published in: Atmosphere-ocean Vol. 45; no. 2; pp. 107 - 122
• Main Authors: Manson, Gavin K., Solomon, Steven M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Downsview Taylor & Francis Group 01-06-2007; University of Toronto Press
• Subjects: Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Marine and continental quaternary; Meteorology; Surficial geology; Beaufort Sea; PNW, Beaufort Sea; PN, Arctic; floods; shorelines; Wind driven sea; Wind velocity; digital simulation; Forecast model; Ice cover; littoral erosion; Dynamical climatology; climate modification; Atmospheric temperature; extreme value; global change; sea ice; Arctic Ocean; Polar region; sea level; storms; glacial extent
• ISSN: 0705-5900; 1480-9214
• DOI: 10.3137/ao.450204

Changes to the Beaufort Sea shoreline occur due to the impact of storms and rising relative sea level. During the open-water season (June to October), storm winds predominantly from the north-west generate waves and storm surges which are effective in eroding thawing ice-rich cliffs and causing overwash of gravel beaches. Climate change is expected to be enhanced in Arctic regions relative to the global mean and include accelerated sea-level rise, more frequent extreme storm winds, more frequent and extreme storm surge flooding, decreased sea-ice extent, more frequent and higher waves, and increased temperatures. We investigate historical records of wind speeds and directions, water levels, sea-ice extent and temperature to identify variability in past forcing and use the Canadian Global Coupled Model ensembles 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2) climate modelling results to develop a scenario forcing future change of Beaufort Sea shorelines. This scenario and future return periods of peak storm wind speeds and water levels likely indicate increased forcing of coastal change during the next century resulting in increased rates of cliff erosion and beach migration, and more extreme flooding.