Metaheuristic-based support vector regression for landslide displacement prediction: a comparative study

• Published in: Landslides Vol. 19; no. 10; pp. 2489 - 2511
• Main Authors: Ma, Junwei, Xia, Ding, Guo, Haixiang, Wang, Yankun, Niu, Xiaoxu, Liu, Zhiyang, Jiang, Sheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-10-2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Accuracy; Agriculture; Algorithms; Civil Engineering; Comparative analysis; Comparative studies; Computational efficiency; Computer applications; Computing time; Displacement; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Genetic algorithms; Geography; Heuristic methods; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrological cycle; Landslides; Landslides & mudslides; Machine learning; Natural Hazards; Nonparametric statistics; Particle swarm optimization; Predictions; Reproducibility; Robustness (mathematics); Root-mean-square errors; Statistical analysis; Statistics; Support vector machines; Technical Note; Support vector regression (SVR); Landslide displacement prediction; Metaheuristics; Nonparametric Friedman test
• ISSN: 1612-510X; 1612-5118
• DOI: 10.1007/s10346-022-01923-6

Recently, integrated machine learning (ML) metaheuristic algorithms, such as the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm, genetic algorithm (GA), gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and water cycle algorithm (WCA), have become predominant approaches for landslide displacement prediction. However, these algorithms suffer from poor reproducibility across replicate cases. In this study, a hybrid approach integrating k-fold cross validation (CV), metaheuristic support vector regression (SVR), and the nonparametric Friedman test is proposed to enhance reproducibility. The five previously mentioned metaheuristics were compared in terms of accuracy, computational time, robustness, and convergence. The results obtained for the Shuping and Baishuihe landslides demonstrate that the hybrid approach can be utilized to determine the optimum hyperparameters and present statistical significance, thus enhancing accuracy and reliability in ML-based prediction. Significant differences were observed among the five metaheuristics. Based on the Friedman test, which was performed on the root mean square error (RMSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and computational time, PSO is recommended for hyperparameter tuning for SVR-based displacement prediction due to its ability to maintain a balance between precision, computational time, and robustness. The nonparametric Friedman test is promising for presenting statistical significance, thus enhancing reproducibility.