Correlation of spectral acceleration values from NGA ground motion models

• Published in: Earthquake spectra Vol. 24; no. 1; pp. 299 - 317
• Main Authors: Baker, Jack W, Jayaram, Nirmal
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute 01-02-2008
• Subjects: acceleration; correlation coefficient; data bases; data processing; earthquake prediction; earthquakes; geologic hazards; ground motion; natural hazards; NGA Project; numerical models; peak ground acceleration; probability; risk assessment; Seismology; spectra; spectral analysis; statistical analysis
• ISSN: 8755-2930; 1944-8201
• DOI: 10.1193/1.2857544

Ground motion models (or “attenuation relationships”) describe the probability distribution of spectral acceleration at an individual period, given a set of predictor variables such as magnitude and distance, but they do not address the correlations between spectral acceleration values at multiple periods or orientations. Those correlations are needed for several calculations related to seismic hazard analysis and ground motion selection. Four NGA models and the NGA ground motion database are used here to measure these correlations, and predictive equations are fit to the results. The equations are valid for periods from 0.01 seconds to 10 seconds, versus similar previous equations that were valid only between 0.05 and 5 seconds and produced unreasonable results if extrapolated. Use of the new NGA ground motion database also facilitates a first study of correlations from intra- and inter-event residuals. Observed correlations are not sensitive to the choice of accompanying ground motion model, and intra-event, inter-event, and total residuals all exhibit similar correlation structure. A single equation is thus applicable for a variety of correlation predictions. A simple example illustrates the use of the proposed equations for one hazard analysis application.