Region-specific deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kanpur city

• Published in: Journal of Earth System Science Vol. 126; no. 1; p. 12
• Main Authors: Anbazhagan P, Bajaj, Ketan, Dutta, Nairwita, R Moustafa, Sayed S, N Al-Arifi, Nassir S
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi Springer India 01-02-2017; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Acceleration; Building codes; City centres; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquake magnitude; Earthquakes; Equations; Geological hazards; Ground motion; Hazard assessment; Mapping; Mathematical analysis; Probability theory; Risk assessment; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismology; Space Exploration and Astronautics; Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics; Statistical analysis; Vulnerability; Kanpur India; India; DSHA; PSHA; GMPE; PGA; rupture characteristics; maximum magnitude; SA
• ISSN: 0253-4126; 0973-774X
• DOI: 10.1007/s12040-016-0779-6

A seismic hazard map of Kanpur city has been developed considering the region-specific seismotectonic parameters within a 500-km radius by deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The maximum probable earthquake magnitude (
M
max
) for each seismic source has been estimated by considering the regional rupture characteristics method and has been compared with the maximum magnitude observed
M
max
obs
,
M
max
obs
+
0.5
and Kijko method. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) were selected from 27 applicable GMPEs based on the ‘efficacy test’. Furthermore, different weight factors were assigned to different
M
max
values and the selected GMPE to calculate the final hazard value. Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1 s were estimated and mapped for worst-case scenario and 2 and 10% probability of exceedance for 50 years. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) showed a variation from 0.04 to 0.36 g for DSHA, from 0.02 to 0.32 g and 0.092 to 0.1525 g for 2 and 10% probability in 50 years, respectively. A normalised site-specific design spectrum has been developed considering three vulnerable sources based on deaggregation at the city center and the results are compared with the recent 2011 Sikkim and 2015 Nepal earthquakes, and the Indian seismic code IS 1893.