A perspective on model-data surface temperature comparison at the Last Glacial Maximum

• Published in: Quaternary science reviews Vol. 107; pp. 1 - 10
• Main Authors: Annan, J.D., Hargreaves, J.C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01-01-2015
• Subjects: Climate model; Last Glacial Maximum; Marine; Proxy reconstruction; Last Glacial Maximum; Proxy reconstruction; Climate model
• ISSN: 0277-3791; 1873-457X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.019

We review progress in model and proxy-based reconstruction of the surface temperature field of the Last Glacial Maximum. Both approaches have converged towards a climate state substantially colder than the present day, with the temperature anomaly field showing strong polar amplification and land-sea contrast. The magnitudes of the large-scale changes are increasingly well-constrained, with a recent model-data synthesis generating a value of 4 °C, which suggests a moderate equilibrium climate sensitivity of about 2.5 °C. However, significant areas of uncertainty remain, particularly in the tropical sea surface temperature change. At finer sub-continental spatial scales, there is limited agreement between models and data regarding the patterns of change.
•We discuss developments in modelling and proxy-based estimation of the surface temperature field of the Last Glacial Maximum.•Recent data analyses suggest global mean temperature anomaly of around 4.0 °C below pre-industrial.•Model simulations agree reasonably well on broad scales, but poorly on a regional basis.