Validation of a satellite-based cyclogenesis technique over the North Indian Ocean

• Published in: Journal of Earth System Science Vol. 125; no. 7; pp. 1353 - 1363
• Main Authors: Goyal, Suman, Mohapatra, M, Kumar, Ashish, Dube, S K, Rajendra, Kushagra, Goswami, P
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi Springer India 01-10-2016; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analogs; Cyclogenesis; Cyclones; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Hurricanes; Indian space program; Low level; Marine; Monsoons; Oceans; Polar orbiting satellites; Probability theory; Satellites; Scatterometers; Sea surface; Space Exploration and Astronautics; Space research; Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics; Surface wind; Tropical cyclones; Validation studies; Winds; Indian Ocean; ISW, Arabian Sea; Bay of Bengal; ISW, North Indian Ocean; scatterometeric winds; Tropical cyclones; cyclogenesis; Dvorak’s technique
• ISSN: 0253-4126; 0973-774X
• DOI: 10.1007/s12040-016-0746-2

Indian region is severely affected by the tropical cyclones (TCs) due to the long coast line of about 7500 km. Hence, whenever any low level circulation (LLC) forms over the Indian Seas, the prediction of its intensification into a TC is very essential for the management of TC disaster. Satellite Application Centre (SAC) of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad, has developed a technique to predict TCs based on scatterometer-derived winds from the polar orbiting satellite, QuikSCAT and Oceansat-II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has acquired the technique and verified it for the years 2010–2013 for operational use. The model is based on the concept of analogs of the sea surface wind distribution at the stage of LLC or vortex (T1.0) as per Dvorak’s classifications, which eventually leads to cyclogenesis (T2.5). The results indicate that the developed model could predict cyclogenesis with a probability of detection of 61% and critical success index of 0.29. However, it shows high over-prediction of the model is better over the Bay of Bengal than over Arabian Sea and during post-monsoon season (September–December) than in pre-monsoon season (March–June).