Modelling respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children aged less than five years-old/ Modelamiento de la transmision del Virus Respiratorio Sincitial (VRS) en ninos menores de cinco anos

• Published in: Revista de salud pública (Bogotá, Colombia) Vol. 15; no. 4; p. 637
• Main Authors: Querales, Jose, Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto C, Aranda-Lozano, Diego F
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Spanish
• Published: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de Medicina 01-08-2013
• Subjects: Analysis; Children
• ISSN: 0124-0064

Objectives Studying respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission dynamics in a population of children aged less than 5 years-old using deterministic models. Method A deterministic susceptible-infected-removed(SIR) mathematical model with seasonal forcing was used for the simulation. Results A mathematical epidemiological model (SIRS) with seasonal forcing was proposed which explained RSV dynamics between 2005 and 2010 in a population of children aged less than five years-old in Bogota. Conclusions The mathematical model (SIRS) with seasonal forcing explained the cyclical pattern of cases of children aged less than five years old infected with RSV in Bogota, Colombia during the target period. Key Words: Respiratory syncytial virus, respiratory tract infection, epidemiologic research design (source: MeSH, NLM). Objetivo Estudiar la dinamica de la transmision del Virus Respiratorio Sincitial en una poblacion de ninos menores de 5 anos en la ciudad de Bogota correspondiente al periodo 2005-2010 usando modelos deterministicos. Metodo Simulacion matematica a partir de un modelo deterministico SIRS con estacionalidad forzada. Resultados Se propuso un modelo matematico epidemiologico SIRS con estacionalidad forzada para dar explicacion a la dinamica del VRS en la poblacion deninos menores de cinco anos en Bogota correspondiente al periodo 2005-2010. Conclusiones El modelo matematico SIRS con estacionalidad forzada explica de una forma razonable el comportamiento ciclico de los casos de ninos infectados con el Virus Respiratorio Sincitial en la ciudad de Bogota D. C., Colombia. Palabras Clave: Virus sincitial respiratorio humano, infecciones del sistema respiratorio, diseno de investigaciones epidemiologicas (fuente: DeCS, BIREME).