Strategic Insights from Simulation Gaming of AI Race Dynamics

• Main Authors: Gruetzemacher, Ross, Avin, Shahar, Fox, James, Saeri, Alexander K
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 03-10-2024
• Subjects: Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence; Computer Science - Computers and Society
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2410.03092

We present insights from "Intelligence Rising", a scenario exploration
exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators
who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring
patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay.
Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development
trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising
effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in
mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and
national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI
capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective
in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI
governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of
international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the
critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for
unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these
insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry
leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and
governance.