Estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude, Mmax

• Published in: Pure and applied geophysics Vol. 161; no. 8; pp. 1655 - 1681
• Main Author: KIJKO, Andrzej
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel Springer 01-08-2004; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Earthquakes; Earthquakes, seismology; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Internal geophysics; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Seismic activity; Southern California; United States; California; Monte Carlo analysis; statistical distribution; mathematical models; prediction; magnitude; Seismic hazard; maximum earthquake magnitude mmax; earthquakes; North America; seismic risk; seismicity
• ISSN: 0033-4553; 1420-9136
• DOI: 10.1007/s00024-004-2531-4

This paper provides a generic equation for the evaluation of the maximum earthquake magnitude m^sub max^ for a given seismogenic zone or entire region. The equation is capable of generating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the statistical distribution model and/or the available information regarding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) when earthquake magnitudes are distributed according to the doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation, (ii) when the empirical magnitude distribution deviates moderately from the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and (iii) when no specific type of magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from Southern California, are used to demonstrate the procedures given for the evaluation of m^sub max^. The three estimates of m^sub max^ for Southern California, obtained by the three procedures mentioned above, are respectively: 8.32 ± 0.43, 8.31 ± 0.42 and 8.34 ± 0.45. All three estimates are nearly identical, although higher than the value 7.99 obtained by Field et al. (1999). In general, since the third procedure is non-parametric and does not require specification of the functional form of the magnitude distribution, its estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude m^sub max^ is considered more reliable than the other two which are based on the Gutenberg-Richter relation.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]