Future-Proof Scenarios and Risk Analysis for Wheat by Agrometshell Model

• Published in: Journal of Agricultural Sciences (JAS) Vol. 18; no. 3; pp. 187 - 196
• Main Authors: Belgin Çakmak, Osman Şimşek
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Turkish
• Published: Faculty of Agriculture, Ankara University 2013
• Subjects: agrometshell; climate change; food security; gıda güvenliği; i̇klim değişikliği; verim tahmini; wsi
• DOI: 10.1501/Tarimbil_0000001207
• EISSN: 2148-9297
• ISSN: 1300-7580

Climate change to be experienced within the current century and droughts significantly threatens the food security. Objective of this study is to estimate impacts of climate change on wheat production of Turkey by using AgroMetShell (AMS) model. Possible decreases in wheat production of the country were investigated by using future-proof scenarios and risk analyseswith Water Sufficiency Index (WSI) values produced by AMS model. Also the possible use of AMS model of FAO in yield analyses and estimations were also investigated in this study. Entire estimations yielded a decrease in wheat yields. The highest decrease (18.2 %) was observed in a scenario with 2 °C decrease in temperature, 20 % increase in solar radiation and 20 % decrease in precipitation. Seperate evaluations of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation revealed the highest decrease (6.5 %) with 20% decrease in precipitation. Dual evaluations revealed the lowest decrease as 13.2 % with 20 % decrease in precipitation 20 % increase in solar radiation.