PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF THE STATE OF PARÁ, BRAZIL

• Published in: Cogitare enfermagem Vol. 24; p. e64835
• Main Authors: Bárbara Lopes Paiva, Laura Maria Vidal Nogueira, Ivaneide Leal Ataíde Rorigues, Paulo Cesar Basta, Ângela Maria Rodrigues Ferreira, Samantha Pereira Caldas
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidade Federal do Paraná 01-12-2019
• Subjects: health information system; indigenous population; logistic models; social conditions; tuberculosis
• DOI: 10.5380/ce.v24i0.64835
• EISSN: 2176-9133
• ISSN: 1414-8536

Objective: develop a model that is able to identify the correlation between socioeconomic determinants and incidence of tuberculosis in the indigenous population of the state of Pará. Method: quantitative analytical study, which built a predictive model using Poisson regression for 285 new cases reported in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, from January 2010 to December 2015, in the state of Pará. Results: the model confirmed that 86% of the total number of new cases can be explained by the variables: receipt of social benefits from the government, income, education and sex. The first variable was considered the most significant with p<0.10. Conclusion: the predictive model is useful as a support for making decisions, since it enables focusing tuberculosis control actions on individuals at greater risk: indigenous men, with no education, who do not receive social benefits.