Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China’s future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 38; no. 8; pp. 3943 - 3956
• Main Authors: Ou, Xunmin, Zhang, Xiliang, Chang, Shiyan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01-08-2010; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Series: Energy Policy
• Subjects: Air pollution caused by fuel industries; Alternative energy sources; Alternative fuel; Alternative fuel Road transport China; Alternative fuel vehicles; Alternative fuels; Applied sciences; Automobiles; Biomass energy; China; China (People's Republic); Demand analysis; Economic data; Electric vehicles; Emission analysis; Energy; Energy consumption; Energy economics; Energy planning; Energy policy; Energy. Thermal use of fuels; Exact sciences and technology; Fuel; Fuels; General, economic and professional studies; General. Regulations. Norms. Economy; Greenhouse effect; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Life cycles; Marketing; Natural energy; Petroleum industry; Reduction; Renewable energy sources; Road transport; Studies; Supply and demand; Transport economics; Transport planning; Transportation planning, management and economics; Trends; Vehicle emissions; Vehicles; Asia; China; China, People's Rep; PEV; BC; BD; LPG; BE; CBF; GHG; HDB; LDB; ASGRs; AFV; AAGR; China; CAERC; MC; SBF; CO 2, e; HDT; WTW; MDT; LDT; ED; Alternative fuel; MT; MV; CM; LCA; CO; EV; CCS; PC; BAU; TtW; WtT; LC; HEV; Road transport; Mtoe; NG; CTL; BTL; CNG; FE; Road transportation; Vehicle; Script; Energy demand; Pollutant emission
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.018

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China’s oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.