The Effects of Local Police Surges on Crime and Arrests in New York City

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 11; no. 6; p. e0157223
• Main Authors: MacDonald, John, Fagan, Jeffrey, Geller, Amanda
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 16-06-2016; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Burglary; Census; Crime; Crime prevention; Criminal investigations; Criminal statistics; Criminology; Disorderly conduct; Drug Trafficking - prevention & control; Drug Trafficking - statistics & numerical data; Engineering and Technology; Firesetting Behavior - prevention & control; Homicide - prevention & control; Homicide - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Indicators; Law; Law Enforcement - methods; Models, Statistical; New York City; People and Places; Poisson density functions; Police; Police - manpower; Public housing; Regression analysis; Regression models; Research and Analysis Methods; Social Sciences; Statistical analysis; Studies; Surges; Theft - prevention & control; Theft - statistics & numerical data; Trials; Violence - prevention & control; Violence - statistics & numerical data; New York; United States > US
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157223

The New York Police Department (NYPD) under Operation Impact deployed extra police officers to high crime areas designated as impact zones. Officers were encouraged to conduct investigative stops in these areas. City officials credited the program as one of the leading causes of New York City's low crime rate. We tested the effects of Operation Impact on reported crimes and arrests from 2004 to 2012 using a difference-in-differences approach. We used Poisson regression models to compare differences in crime and arrest counts before and after census block groups were designated as impact zones compared to census block groups in the same NYPD precincts but outside impact zones. Impact zones were significantly associated with reductions in total reported crimes, assaults, burglaries, drug violations, misdemeanor crimes, felony property crimes, robberies, and felony violent crimes. Impact zones were significantly associated with increases in total reported arrests, arrests for burglary, arrests for weapons, arrests for misdemeanor crimes, and arrests for property felony crimes. Impact zones were also significantly associated with increases in investigative stops for suspected crimes, but only the increase in stops made based on probable cause indicators of criminal behaviors were associated with crime reductions. The largest increase in investigative stops in impact zones was based on indicators of suspicious behavior that had no measurable effect on crime. The findings suggest that saturating high crime blocks with police helped reduce crime in New York City, but that the bulk of the investigative stops did not play an important role in the crime reductions. The findings indicate that crime reduction can be achieved with more focused investigative stops.