Coevolution can reverse predator–prey cycles

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 111; no. 20; pp. 7486 - 7491
• Main Authors: Cortez, Michael H., Weitz, Joshua S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 20-05-2014; National Acad Sciences
• Subjects: Adaptation, Physiological; Animals; Arvicolinae; Bacteria - virology; Biological Evolution; Biological Sciences; Cholera - microbiology; Coevolution; Ecological genetics; Ecological modeling; Ecology; Evolution; Genotype & phenotype; Hair; Lynx; Mink; Models, Theoretical; Nonnative species; Phenotype; Phenotypic traits; Physical Sciences; Population Dynamics; Population ecology; Predation; Predators; Predatory Behavior; Stem Cells; Time Factors; Time series; population biology; fast–slow dynamics; community ecology; eco-coevolutionary dynamics
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1317693111

A hallmark of Lotka–Volterra models, and other ecological models of predator–prey interactions, is that in predator–prey cycles, peaks in prey abundance precede peaks in predator abundance. Such models typically assume that species life history traits are fixed over ecologically relevant time scales. However, the coevolution of predator and prey traits has been shown to alter the community dynamics of natural systems, leading to novel dynamics including antiphase and cryptic cycles. Here, using an eco-coevolutionary model, we show that predator–prey coevolution can also drive population cycles where the opposite of canonical Lotka–Volterra oscillations occurs: predator peaks precede prey peaks. These reversed cycles arise when selection favors extreme phenotypes, predator offense is costly, and prey defense is effective against low-offense predators. We present multiple datasets from phage–cholera, mink–muskrat, and gyrfalcon–rock ptarmigan systems that exhibit reversed-peak ordering. Our results suggest that such cycles are a potential signature of predator–prey coevolution and reveal unique ways in which predator–prey coevolution can shape, and possibly reverse, community dynamics.