The impact of repeated mass antigen testing for COVID-19 on the prevalence of the disease

• Published in: Journal of population economics Vol. 34; no. 4; pp. 1105 - 1140
• Main Authors: Kahanec, Martin, Lafférs, Lukáš, Schmidpeter, Bernhard
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-10-2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Antigens; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 diagnostic tests; Demography; Economics; Economics and Finance; Immunization; Labor Economics; Original Paper; Pandemics; Population Economics; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Social Policy; Vaccination; Viral diseases; COVID-19; I18; D04; Mass testing; COVID-19 policies; J22; Antigen testing; Non-pharmaceutical interventions
• ISSN: 0933-1433; 1432-1475
• DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00856-z

In the absence of effective vaccination, mass testing and quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could help to mitigate pandemics and allow economies to stay open. We investigate the effects of repeated mass testing on the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using data from the first ever nationwide rapid antigen testing implemented in Slovakia in autumn 2020. After the first round of testing, only districts above an ex ante unknown threshold of test positivity were re-tested. Comparing districts above and below the threshold, we provide evidence that repeated mass antigen testing can temporarily reduce the number of new infections. Our results suggest that mass testing coupled with the quarantining of positive cases and their contacts could be an effective tool in mitigating pandemics. For lasting effects, re-testing at regular intervals would likely be necessary.