“Sophisticated” Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries
Voters in multicandidate contests may confront circumstances under which it is in their interest to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate. The U.S. electoral system, typically offering a choice between only two major contenders, rarely presents opportunities for this “sophisticated” voti...
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| Published in: | The American political science review Vol. 86; no. 1; pp. 55 - 69 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, USA
Cambridge University Press
01-03-1992
The American Political Science Association American Political Science Association |
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| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Voters in multicandidate contests may confront circumstances under which it is in their interest to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate. The U.S. electoral system, typically offering a choice between only two major contenders, rarely presents opportunities for this “sophisticated” voting. In presidential primaries, however, many plausible candidates may compete. We investigate the presence of sophisticated voting in the 1988 presidential primaries, using data from the National Election Study's Super Tuesday survey. We examine patterns of voting types based on ordinal measures of preferences among candidates and assessments of their chances of winning their party's nomination and estimate several models of choice, testing the multicandidate calculus of voting. Among both Republicans and Democrats, respondents' choices were consistent with the calculus of voting and thus with sophisticated voting. |
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| AbstractList | Voters in multicandidate contests may confront circumstances under which it is in their interest to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate. The U.S. electoral system, typically offering a choice between only two major contenders, rarely presents opportunities for this "sophisticated" voting. In presidential primaries, however, many plausible candidates may compete. We investigate the presence of sophisticated voting in the 1988 presidential primaries, using data from the National Election Study's Super Tuesday survey. We examine patterns of voting types based on ordinal measures of preferences among candidates and assessments of their chances of winning their party's nomination and estimate several models of choice, testing the multicandidate calculus of voting. Among both Republicans and Democrats, respondents' choices were consistent with the calculus of voting and thus with sophisticated voting. VOTERS IN MULTI-CANDIDATE CONTESTS MAY CONFRONT CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER WHICH IT IS IN THEIR INTEREST TO VOTE FOR A SECOND- OR EVEN LOWER-RANKED CANDIDATE. THE U.S. ELECTORAL SYSTEM, TYPICALLY OFFERING A CHOICE BETWEEN ONLY TWO MAJOR CONTENDERS, RARELY PRESENTS OPPORTUNITIES FOR THIS "SOPHISTICATED" VOTING. AN EXCEPTION IS PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES IN WHICH MANY PLAUSIBLE CANDIDATES MAY COMPETE. THE AUTHORS INVESTIGATE THE USE OF SOPHISTICATED VOTING IN THE 1988 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, BASED ON DATA FROM THE NATIONAL ELECTION STUDY'S SUPER TUESDAY SURVEY. THEY EXAMINE PATTERNS OF VOTING TYPES BASED ON ORDINAL MEASURES OF PREFERENCES AMONG CANDIDATES AND ASSESSMENTS OF THEIR CHANCES OF WINNING THEIR PARTY'S NOMINATION AND ESTIMATE SEVERAL MODELS OF CHOICE, TESTING THE MULTI-CANDIDATE CALCULUS OF VOTING. AMONG BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, RESPONDENTS' CHOICES WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE CALCULUS OF VOTING AND THUS WITH SOPHISTICATED VOTING. "Sophisticated voting," a voting process by which it is in the best interest of the voter to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate in a multicandidate contest, is discussed, and the presence of sophisticated voting in the 1988 presidential primaries is investigated. Voters in multicandidate contests may confront circumstances under which it is in their interest to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate. The U.S. electoral system, typically offering a choice between only two major contenders, rarely presents opportunities for this `sophisticated' voting. In presidential primaries, however, many plausible candidates may compete. We investigate the presence of sophisticated voting in the 1988 presidential primaries, using data from the National Election Study's Super Tuesday survey. We examine patterns of voting types based on ordinal measures of preferences among candidates and assessments of their chances of winning their party's nomination and estimate several models of choice, testing the multicandidate calculus of voting. Among both Republicans and Democrats, respondents' choices were consistent with the calculus of voting and thus with sophisticated voting. Reprinted by permission of Cambridge University Press. |
| Author | Paolino, Phil Abramson, Paul R. Rohde, David W. Aldrich, John H. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Paul R. surname: Abramson fullname: Abramson, Paul R. organization: Michigan State University – sequence: 2 givenname: John H. surname: Aldrich fullname: Aldrich, John H. organization: Duke University – sequence: 3 givenname: Phil surname: Paolino fullname: Paolino, Phil organization: Duke University – sequence: 4 givenname: David W. surname: Rohde fullname: Rohde, David W. organization: Michigan State University |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2307/1953324 10.7208/chicago/9780226922447.001.0001 10.1515/9780691221908 10.2307/2110464 10.2307/1956845 10.1017/S0003055400117368 10.2307/1958148 10.2307/2110465 10.2307/1958405 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright © American Political Science Association 1992 1992 INIST-CNRS Copyright American Political Science Association Mar 1992 |
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| PublicationCentury | 1900 |
| PublicationDate | 1992-03-01 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 1992-03-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 03 year: 1992 text: 1992-03-01 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 1990 |
| PublicationPlace | New York, USA |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: New York, USA – name: Washington, DC – name: Washington, D.C., etc – name: Washington |
| PublicationTitle | The American political science review |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Am Polit Sci Rev |
| PublicationYear | 1992 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press The American Political Science Association American Political Science Association |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Cambridge University Press – name: The American Political Science Association – name: American Political Science Association |
| References | McKelvey (S0003055400086974_ref019) 1972; 6 Farquharson (S0003055400086974_ref015) 1969 S0003055400086974_ref017 S0003055400086974_ref008 Bartels (S0003055400086974_ref009) 1988 Riker (S0003055400086974_ref022) 1973 Abramson (S0003055400086974_ref001) 1990 (S0003055400086974_ref013) 1988 Brady (S0003055400086974_ref011) 1987 Barry (S0003055400086974_ref007) 1970 Keeter (S0003055400086974_ref018) 1983 Abramson (S0003055400086974_ref002) 1983 S0003055400086974_ref005 Paolino (S0003055400086974_ref020) 1989 S0003055400086974_ref016 S0003055400086974_ref004 S0003055400086974_ref010 S0003055400086974_ref021 Aldrich (S0003055400086974_ref006) 1991 Downs (S0003055400086974_ref014) 1957 Abramson (S0003055400086974_ref003) 1991 S0003055400086974_ref012 |
| References_xml | – volume-title: Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System year: 1983 ident: S0003055400086974_ref018 contributor: fullname: Keeter – volume-title: Change and Continuity in the 1988 Elections year: 1991 ident: S0003055400086974_ref003 contributor: fullname: Abramson – ident: S0003055400086974_ref021 doi: 10.2307/1953324 – volume-title: An Introduction to Positive Political Theory year: 1973 ident: S0003055400086974_ref022 contributor: fullname: Riker – volume-title: Change and Continuity in the 1980 Elections year: 1983 ident: S0003055400086974_ref002 contributor: fullname: Abramson – volume-title: Sociologists, Economists, and Democracy year: 1970 ident: S0003055400086974_ref007 contributor: fullname: Barry – volume-title: American National Elections Study, 1988: The Presidential Nomination Process (The Super Tuesday Study) year: 1988 ident: S0003055400086974_ref013 – volume-title: ‘Sophisticated’ Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries year: 1990 ident: S0003055400086974_ref001 contributor: fullname: Abramson – ident: S0003055400086974_ref004 doi: 10.7208/chicago/9780226922447.001.0001 – volume-title: Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice year: 1988 ident: S0003055400086974_ref009 doi: 10.1515/9780691221908 contributor: fullname: Bartels – ident: S0003055400086974_ref010 doi: 10.2307/2110464 – volume-title: Turnout and Rational Choice year: 1991 ident: S0003055400086974_ref006 contributor: fullname: Aldrich – ident: S0003055400086974_ref008 doi: 10.2307/1956845 – volume-title: Theory of Voting year: 1969 ident: S0003055400086974_ref015 contributor: fullname: Farquharson – volume-title: A Reciprocal Model of Candidate Evaluation during the 1988 Presidential Primaries year: 1989 ident: S0003055400086974_ref020 contributor: fullname: Paolino – ident: S0003055400086974_ref016 doi: 10.1017/S0003055400117368 – ident: S0003055400086974_ref005 doi: 10.2307/1958148 – volume-title: Media and Momentum year: 1987 ident: S0003055400086974_ref011 contributor: fullname: Brady – volume: 6 volume-title: Mathematical Applications in Political Science year: 1972 ident: S0003055400086974_ref019 contributor: fullname: McKelvey – ident: S0003055400086974_ref012 doi: 10.2307/2110465 – ident: S0003055400086974_ref017 doi: 10.2307/1958405 – volume-title: An Economic Theory of Democracy year: 1957 ident: S0003055400086974_ref014 contributor: fullname: Downs |
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| Snippet | Voters in multicandidate contests may confront circumstances under which it is in their interest to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate. The U.S.... "Sophisticated voting," a voting process by which it is in the best interest of the voter to vote for a second- or even lower-ranked candidate in a... VOTERS IN MULTI-CANDIDATE CONTESTS MAY CONFRONT CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER WHICH IT IS IN THEIR INTEREST TO VOTE FOR A SECOND- OR EVEN LOWER-RANKED CANDIDATE. THE... |
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| SubjectTerms | Candidates Caucuses CHOICE, IN ANY CONTEXT Coefficients ELECTION ELECTORAL PRIMARIES Political campaigns Political candidates Political parties Political science Political sociology Political systems, parties and institutions Polls Presidency PRESIDENCY (ALL NATIONS) Presidential elections Primaries Primaries & caucuses Primary elections REPUBLICAN PARTY (ALL NATIONS) Social research Sociology U.S.A United States Viability Voter behavior VOTING Voting Behavior Voting behaviour |
| Title | “Sophisticated” Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries |
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