What gives rise to clinician gut feeling, its influence on management decisions and its prognostic value for children with RTI in primary care: a prospective cohort study

• Published in: BMC family practice Vol. 19; no. 1; p. 25
• Main Authors: Turnbull, Sophie, Lucas, Patricia J, Redmond, Niamh M, Christensen, Hannah, Thornton, Hannah, Cabral, Christie, Blair, Peter S, Delaney, Brendan C, Thompson, Matthew, Little, Paul, Peters, Tim J, Hay, Alastair D
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 05-02-2018; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Adolescent; Anti-Bacterial Agents - therapeutic use; Care and treatment; Child; Child, Preschool; Clinical Decision-Making; Decision making; Diagnosis, Differential; Emotions; Female; General Practitioners - psychology; Health Status; Humans; Infant; Male; Nurse Practitioners - psychology; Parents; Physiological aspects; Primary care nursing; Primary Health Care; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Referral and Consultation; Respiratory tract infections; Respiratory Tract Infections - diagnosis; Respiratory Tract Infections - drug therapy; United Kingdom; Respiratory tract infections; Paediatric; Prognosis; Decision making; Primary health care; Child; Cough; Emotions
• ISSN: 1471-2296; 1471-2296
• DOI: 10.1186/s12875-018-0716-7

The objectives were to identify 1) the clinician and child characteristics associated with; 2) clinical management decisions following from, and; 3) the prognostic value of; a clinician's 'gut feeling something is wrong' for children presenting to primary care with acute cough and respiratory tract infection (RTI).
Multicentre prospective cohort study where 518 primary care clinicians across 244 general practices in England assessed 8394 children aged ≥3 months and < 16 years for acute cough and RTI. The main outcome measures were: Self-reported clinician 'gut feeling'; clinician management decisions (antibiotic prescribing, referral for acute admission); and child's prognosis (reconsultation with evidence of illness deterioration, hospital admission in the 30 days following recruitment).
Clinician years since qualification, parent reported symptoms (illness severity score ≥ 7/10, severe fever < 24 h, low energy, shortness of breath) and clinical examination findings (crackles/ crepitations on chest auscultation, recession, pallor, bronchial breathing, wheeze, temperature ≥ 37.8 °C, tachypnoea and inflamed pharynx) independently contributed towards a clinician 'gut feeling that something was wrong'. 'Gut feeling' was independently associated with increased antibiotic prescribing and referral for secondary care assessment. After adjustment for other associated factors, gut feeling was not associated with reconsultations or hospital admissions.
Clinicians were more likely to report a gut feeling something is wrong, when they were more experienced or when children were more unwell. Gut feeling is independently and strongly associated with antibiotic prescribing and referral to secondary care, but not with two indicators of poor child health.