Past, present, and future predictions on the suitable habitat of the Slender racer (Orientocoluber spinalis) using species distribution models

• Published in: Ecology and evolution Vol. 12; no. 8
• Main Authors: Park, Il‐Kook, Borzée, Amaël, Park, Jaejin, Min, Seong‐Hun, Zhang, Yong‐Pu, Li, Shu‐Ran, Park, Daesik
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-08-2022; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Annual precipitation; Biodiversity; Biology; Climate change; continental climate; Current distribution; East Asia; Geographical distribution; glacial period; Habitats; Holocene; National parks; Orientocoluber spinalis; Spatial Ecology; species distribution model; Threatened species; Mongolia; South Korea; Asia; China; Kazakhstan; North Korea; Russia
• ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9169

Species distribution models (SDMs) across past, present, and future timelines provide insights into the current distribution of these species and their reaction to climate change. Specifically, if a species is threatened or not well‐known, the information may be critical to understand that species. In this study, we computed SDMs for Orientocoluber spinalis, a monotypic snake genus found in central and northeast Asia, across the past (last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid‐Holocene), present, and future (2070s). The goal of the study was to understand the shifts in distribution across time, and the climatic factors primarily affecting the distribution of the species. We found the suitable habitat of O. spinalis to be persistently located in cold‐dry winter and hot summer climatic areas where annual mean temperature, isothermality, and annual mean precipitation were important for suitable habitat conditions. Since the last glacial maximum, the suitable habitat of the species has consistently shifted northward. Despite the increase in suitable habitat, the rapid alterations in weather regimes because of climate change in the near future are likely to greatly threaten the southern populations of O. spinalis, especially in South Korea and China. To cope with such potential future threats, understanding the ecological requirements of the species and developing conservation plans are urgently needed.
We predicted the habitat suitability of Orientocoluber spinalis, a monotypic snake genus found in central and northeast Asia, across past, present, and future timelines, providing insights on the current distribution and their reaction to climate change.