Modeling the invasion and establishment of a tick-borne pathogen
We develop a discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen trans...
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| Published in: | Ecological modelling Vol. 467; p. 109915 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier B.V
01-05-2022
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| Abstract | We develop a discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen transmission. We first establish the global dynamics of the disease-free system. We then apply the model to two pathogens, Borellia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophila, using Ixodes ricinus as the tick species to study properties of the invasion and establishment of a disease numerically. In particular, we consider the basic reproduction number, which determines whether a disease can invade the tick-host system, as well as disease prevalence and time to establishment in the case of successful disease invasion. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the means of each of these disease metrics and their elasticities with respect to various model parameters. We find that increased tick survival may help enable disease invasion, decrease the time to disease establishment, and increase disease prevalence once established. In contrast, though disease invasion is sensitive to tick-to-host transmission and tick searching efficiencies, neither disease prevalence nor time to disease establishment is sensitive to these parameters. These differences emphasize the importance of developing approaches, such as the one highlighted here, that can be used to study disease dynamics beyond just pathogen invasion, including transitional and long-term dynamics.
•A novel discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model for a hard tick species is developed.•Global dynamics of the disease-free tick-host model are established.•Tick-to-host infection probabilities affect disease invasion but not establishment.•Increased tick survival facilitates both disease invasion and establishment. |
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| AbstractList | We develop a discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen transmission. We first establish the global dynamics of the disease-free system. We then apply the model to two pathogens,
Borellia burgdorferi
and
Anaplasma phagocytophila
, using
Ixodes ricinus
as the tick species to study properties of the invasion and establishment of a disease numerically. In particular, we consider the basic reproduction number, which determines whether a disease can invade the tick-host system, as well as disease prevalence and time to establishment in the case of successful disease invasion. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the means of each of these disease metrics and their elasticities with respect to various model parameters. We find that increased tick survival may help enable disease invasion, decrease the time to disease establishment, and increase disease prevalence once established. In contrast, though disease invasion is sensitive to tick-to-host transmission and tick searching efficiencies, neither disease prevalence nor time to disease establishment is sensitive to these parameters. These differences emphasize the importance of developing approaches, such as the one highlighted here, that can be used to study disease dynamics beyond just pathogen invasion, including transitional and long-term dynamics. We develop a discrete-time tick-host-pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen transmission. We first establish the global dynamics of the disease-free system. We then apply the model to two pathogens, and , using as the tick species to study properties of the invasion and establishment of a disease numerically. In particular, we consider the basic reproduction number, which determines whether a disease can invade the tick-host system, as well as disease prevalence and time to establishment in the case of successful disease invasion. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the means of each of these disease metrics and their elasticities with respect to various model parameters. We find that increased tick survival may help enable disease invasion, decrease the time to disease establishment, and increase disease prevalence once established. In contrast, though disease invasion is sensitive to tick-to-host transmission and tick searching efficiencies, neither disease prevalence nor time to disease establishment is sensitive to these parameters. These differences emphasize the importance of developing approaches, such as the one highlighted here, that can be used to study disease dynamics beyond just pathogen invasion, including transitional and long-term dynamics. We develop a discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model to describe the spread of a disease in a hard-bodied tick species. This model incorporates the developmental stages for a tick, the dependence of the tick life-cycle and disease transmission on host availability, and three sources of pathogen transmission. We first establish the global dynamics of the disease-free system. We then apply the model to two pathogens, Borellia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophila, using Ixodes ricinus as the tick species to study properties of the invasion and establishment of a disease numerically. In particular, we consider the basic reproduction number, which determines whether a disease can invade the tick-host system, as well as disease prevalence and time to establishment in the case of successful disease invasion. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we calculate the means of each of these disease metrics and their elasticities with respect to various model parameters. We find that increased tick survival may help enable disease invasion, decrease the time to disease establishment, and increase disease prevalence once established. In contrast, though disease invasion is sensitive to tick-to-host transmission and tick searching efficiencies, neither disease prevalence nor time to disease establishment is sensitive to these parameters. These differences emphasize the importance of developing approaches, such as the one highlighted here, that can be used to study disease dynamics beyond just pathogen invasion, including transitional and long-term dynamics. •A novel discrete-time tick–host–pathogen model for a hard tick species is developed.•Global dynamics of the disease-free tick-host model are established.•Tick-to-host infection probabilities affect disease invasion but not establishment.•Increased tick survival facilitates both disease invasion and establishment. |
| ArticleNumber | 109915 |
| Author | Veprauskas, Amy Ackleh, Azmy S. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Azmy S. surname: Ackleh fullname: Ackleh, Azmy S. – sequence: 2 givenname: Amy orcidid: 0000-0002-0844-8294 surname: Veprauskas fullname: Veprauskas, Amy email: amy.veprauskas@louisiana.edu |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35663375$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1080_10236198_2023_2285895 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_idm_2024_04_008 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1007/s10393-010-0287-0 10.1137/0520025 10.1099/jmm.0.001206 10.1017/S0031182004004925 10.3390/rs9060609 10.1603/0022-2585-38.5.684 10.1017/S0031182006001417 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2016.05.006 10.1017/S0031182098003643 10.1080/17513758.2020.1743885 10.1006/jtbi.1999.0982 10.1016/j.ijpara.2004.12.013 10.1128/AEM.03061-09 10.1016/j.ttbdis.2011.09.009 10.1086/587530 10.1080/17513758.2020.1772997 10.1080/17513750802001812 10.1128/AEM.02633-08 10.1080/10236190802332308 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01378.x 10.1090/S0002-9939-1989-0984816-4 10.1093/jmedent/44.5.732 10.1007/s11538-005-9039-7 10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00173-5 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.10.011 10.1080/17513758.2018.1537449 10.1007/s10493-020-00564-5 10.1289/ehp.1307799 10.1128/AEM.00610-10 10.1080/17513758.2010.544410 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.002 10.1111/1365-2664.12050 10.1098/rstb.2014.0051 10.1644/06-MAMM-A-164R.1 10.3390/ijerph15030478 10.1186/s13071-015-0880-8 |
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| Keywords | Basic reproduction number Next generation matrix Ixodes ricinus Hard-bodied ticks Anaplasma phagocytophila Borellia burgdorferi |
| Language | English |
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| SubjectTerms | Anaplasma phagocytophila Basic reproduction number Borellia burgdorferi Hard-bodied ticks Ixodes ricinus Next generation matrix |
| Title | Modeling the invasion and establishment of a tick-borne pathogen |
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