Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission probability in confined traffic space and evaluation of the mitigation strategies

• Published in: Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 28; no. 31; pp. 42204 - 42216
• Main Authors: Chen, Linlin, Ban, Guangze, Long, Enshen, Kalonji, Gretchen, Cheng, Zhu, Zhang, Li, Guo, Shurui
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-08-2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; COVID-19; Cruise ships; Diamonds; Disease control; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecotoxicology; Environment; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Health; Environmental science; Epidemics; Evaluation; Health promotion; Humans; Masks; Monte Carlo simulation; Pandemics; Passengers; Probability; Public health; Public transportation; Research Article; SARS-CoV-2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Viral diseases; Viruses; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Transmission routes; SARS-CoV-2; Wells-Riley model; Facial masks; Public transportation; Transmission probability
• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-13617-y
• EISSN: 1614-7499
• ISSN: 0944-1344

Public transport is a fundamental service for the resumption of work and production, but the enclosed environment and dense population create very favorable conditions for the spread of epidemic infections. Thus, effective public health interventions are urgently introduced. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the SARS-CoV-2 transmission probability and evaluate the influence of environmental parameters and individual intervention on the epidemic prevention. For this purpose, (1) we estimate the virus emission rate with Diamond Princess Cruise Ship infection data by Monte Carlo simulation and the improved Wells-Riley model, and (2) employ the reproductive number
R
to quantify diverse mitigation strategies. Different determinants are examined such as the duration of exposure, the number of passengers combined with individual interventions such as mask type and mask-wearing rate. The results show that the SARS-CoV-2 quantum generation rate is 185.63. The
R
shows a stronger positive correlation with the exposure time comparing to the number of passengers. In this light, reducing the frequency of long-distance journeys on crowded public transportation may be required to reduce the spread of the virus during the pandemic. N95 mask and surgical mask can reduce the transmission risk by 97 and 84%, respectively, and even homemade mask can reduce the risk by 67%, which indicates that it is necessary to advocate wearing masks on public transportation.