Planning for a renewable future in the Brazilian power system

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) Vol. 164; pp. 496 - 511
• Main Authors: Dranka, Géremi Gilson, Ferreira, Paula
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01-12-2018; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Alternative energy; Brazilian electricity sector; Climate change; Complementarity; Dependence; Electric industries; Electric power generation; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Energy system analysis; EnergyPLAN; Environmental impact; Historical account; Hydroelectric power; Long term planning; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Risk analysis; Risk factors; Sustainable yield; Wind power; EnergyPLAN; Renewable energy; Brazilian electricity sector; Energy system analysis
• ISSN: 0360-5442; 1873-6785
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.164

The Brazilian electricity system is an important example of a large country relying on a high renewable energy matrix with a major focus on hydropower, which has historically allowed for low carbon electricity production. However, the increase in the demand and climate change impacts on the availability of these renewable resources represent important challenges for long-term power planning. The contribution of this paper is twofold: Firstly, a first attempt to use the EnergyPLAN model for the analysis of the Brazilian electricity sector and in particular to study future scenarios is presented. Secondly, the possibility of achieving a 100% RES system is also addressed. The 100% RES scenario is found to be theoretically possible but a substantial increase in the overall installed capacity would be required, to support the grid mainly during the spring and summer season. The results underline the importance of seasonal complementarity of hydro and wind power and reveal how an increase in RES would add exportation potential, reducing also the Brazilian external energy dependency. The study identifies risk factors for these high RES scenarios and outlines several avenues for future research to address cost, environmental and technical uncertainties of the system.
•The Brazilian power sector is analysed with EnergyPLAN computer model.•Renewable scenarios are compared for technical, cost, emissions and risk parameters.•The importance of seasonal complementarity of hydro and wind power is outlined.•The 100% RES scenario results in full decarbonization of the system at higher cost.•The 100% RES scenario results in higher exportation and lower importation potential.