Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions

• Published in: Chaos, solitons and fractals Vol. 160; p. 112156
• Main Authors: Carballosa, Alejandro, Balsa-Barreiro, José, Boullosa, Pablo, Garea, Adrián, Mira, Jorge, Miramontes, Ángel, Muñuzuri, Alberto P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01-07-2022; The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd
• Subjects: Confinement scenarios; Linear stability/growth factors; Multilayer network with mobility and geographical data; Risk factors; SEIR pandemic model; SEIR pandemic model; Multilayer network with mobility and geographical data; Risk factors; Confinement scenarios; Linear stability/growth factors
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112156
• EISSN: 1873-2887; 0960-0779
• ISSN: 0960-0779

By March 14th 2022, Spain is suffering the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. All the previous waves have been intimately related to the degree of imposed mobility restrictions and its consequent release. Certain factors explain the incidence of the virus across regions revealing the weak locations that probably require some medical reinforcements. The most relevant ones relate with mobility restrictions by age and administrative competence, i.e., spatial constrains. In this work, we aim to find a mathematical descriptor that could identify the critical communities that are more likely to suffer pandemic outbreaks and, at the same time, to estimate the impact of different mobility restrictions. We analyze the incidence of the virus in combination with mobility flows during the so-called second wave (roughly from August 1st to November 30th, 2020) using a SEIR compartmental model. After that, we derive a mathematical descriptor based on linear stability theory that quantifies the potential impact of becoming a hotspot. Once the model is validated, we consider different confinement scenarios and containment protocols aimed to control the virus spreading. The main findings from our simulations suggest that the confinement of the economically non-active individuals may result in a significant reduction of risk, whose effects are equivalent to the confinement of the total population. This study is conducted across the totality of municipalities in Spain.
•Pandemic outbreaks across municipalities. Model integrates information related with mobility as well as geographical data.•Assessing risks factors at a municipality level.•Linear stability analysis to calculate growth factors to describe the spread of the disease through an extended territory.•Economically non-active individuals’ confinement significantly reduce pandemic risks almost as total confinement.