I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life

• Published in: Journal of population economics Vol. 35; no. 2; pp. 471 - 517
• Main Authors: Arpino, Bruno, Conzo, Pierluigi, Salustri, Francesco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-04-2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adults; Appreciation; Childhood; Children; Counterbalances; Demography; Economic analysis; Economic status; Economics; Economics and Finance; Exposure; Health status; Holocaust; Hypotheses; Labor Economics; Life course; Life expectancy; Mortality; Mortality rates; Optimism; Original Paper; Perceptions; Personal development; Population Economics; Post traumatic stress disorder; Post-traumatic growth; Probability; Psychological stress; Side effects; Social Policy; Socioeconomic factors; Socioeconomic status; Socioeconomics; Survival; Trauma; Traumatic life events; War; World War II; D74; Post-traumatic growth; Europe; I31; J1; Childhood conditions; I10; J14; N44; PTSD; Subjective survival probabilities; Life-course approach; Second World War
• ISSN: 0933-1433; 1432-1475
• DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00859-w

Life-course studies have shown that early-life conditions predict health and socio-economic status in adult life. This study analyzes whether experiencing a traumatic event in childhood, i.e., the Second World War (WW2), affects subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We rely on a representative sample of European adults who were differentially exposed to WW2 during childhood as a result of their date and place of birth. Results show that exposure to WW2 increases SSPs, with socio-economic and health characteristics not playing a mediating role. War exposure also counterbalances the adverse effects of health impairments on SSPs, but it does not affect health outcomes per se. This fact, jointly with low mortality rates of the cohort under investigation, suggests that selective mortality and post-traumatic stress are not the main channels. Instead, the results support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.