Wetting tendency in the Central Mekong Basin consistent with climate change-induced atmospheric disturbances already observed in East Asia

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 111; no. 1-2; pp. 251 - 263
• Main Authors: Lacombe, G., Smakhtin, V., Hoanh, C. T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 2013; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Analysis; Aquatic Pollution; Aquatic resources; Atmosphere; Atmospheric disturbances; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate change; Climatology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Economic development; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Global warming; Meteorology; Original Paper; Rain; Rain and rainfall; Rainfall intensity; Rainy season; Resource availability; Seasonal variations; Waste Water Technology; Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation); Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Water resources; South east Asia; Far East; Thailand; Asia; East Asia; Southeast Asia, Mekong Basin; Southeast Asia; China, People's Rep; East Asian Winter Monsoon; Kendall Test; Rainfall Depth; East Asian Summer Monsoon; Daily Rainfall; time series analysis; trend-surface analysis; atmospheric precipitation; extreme value; sensitivity analysis; global change; climate warming; water resource management; East Asia; monsoons; Atmospheric disturbance; climate change
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0654-6
• EISSN: 1434-4483
• ISSN: 0177-798X

Regional and local trends in rainfall intensity, frequency, seasonality, and extremes were analyzed in the central Mekong Basin in continental Southeast Asia over the period 1953–2004 using the modified Mann–Kendall test, accounting for long-term persistence and the regional average of the Kendall’s statistic. Regionally significant and insignificant wetting tendencies of the dry and wet seasons, respectively, were found to be consistent with rainfall alterations in the neighboring southeastern part of China and attributed by previous studies to the weakening of the East Asia Summer and Winter Monsoons. These observations suggest the existence of causal links between global warming and rainfall changes observed in continental Southeast Asia. Although these changes most likely did not alter agricultural production, they confirm the need to account for climate change impacts when assessing water resources availability in this region under rapid economic development.