Greenhouse Effects of Some Atmospheric Constituents

• Published in: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical and physical sciences Vol. 290; no. 1376; pp. 515 - 521
• Main Author: Houghton, J. T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London The Royal Society 09-02-1979
• Subjects: Aerosols; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric temperature; Atmospherics; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Cloud cover; Greenhouse effect; Solar radiation; Surface temperature
• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.1979.0011
• EISSN: 2054-0272
• ISSN: 0080-4614

The present state of our knowledge of the greenhouse effect is discussed and the limitations of existing atmospheric models that are used to predict changes in the greenhouse effect are pointed out. In particular the possibly dominant effect of the cloud/radiation feedback process is mentioned. Current models predict about a 2 K rise in surface temperature for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2concentration and a 6 K rise if the CO2increased by a factor of 8 as is possible in the future if the increase in the burning of fossil fuels continues. Possible greenhouse effects due to the release of chlorofluoromethanes (c.f.ms) and aerosols into the atmosphere from man-made sources are small. Analysis of the surface temperature changes which have occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 100 years are consistent with most of the changes being due to increased CO2and decreased stratospheric aerosol.