The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis

• Published in: Regional science and urban economics Vol. 97; p. 103826
• Main Authors: Higney, Anthony, Hanley, Nick, Moro, Mirko
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01-11-2022; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Subjects: 20th century; Convergence; Crime; Criminal statistics; Homicide; Lead; Meta-analysis; Pollution; Publication selection bias; Pollution; Crime; Lead; K42; Q53; Meta-analysis; Publication selection bias; C83
• ISSN: 0166-0462; 1879-2308
• DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2022.103826

Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.
•The first meta-analysis of the lead-crime hypothesis.•Lead pollution increases crime.•There is publication bias in the literature.•Main estimates after adjusting for publication bias: partial correlation of 0.16 and an elasticity of 0.09•In US, estimates imply lead explains 7-28% of the fall in homicide and 6-20% of the convergence urban and rural crime rates.