Time-varying jump risk premia in stock index futures returns

• Published in: The journal of futures markets Vol. 32; no. 7; pp. 639 - 659
• Main Authors: Chan, Wing Hong, Feng, Liling
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-07-2012; Wiley Periodicals Inc
• Subjects: Experimental methods; Futures; Investment analysis; Personal finance; Rates of return; Risk management; Risk premiums; Stochastic models; Stock exchange; Stock index futures; Studies; Volatility
• ISSN: 0270-7314; 1096-9934
• DOI: 10.1002/fut.20540

This study tests the presence of time‐varying risk premia associated with extreme news events or jumps in stock index futures return. The model allows for a dynamic jump component with autoregressive jump intensity, long‐range dependence in volatility dynamics, and a volatility in mean structure separately for the normal and extreme news events. The results show significant jump risk premia in four stock market index futures returns including the DAX, FTSE, Nikkei, and S&P500 indices. Our results are robust to various specifications of conditional variance including the plain GARCH, component GARCH, and Fractionally Integrated GARCH models. We also find the time‐varying risk premium associated with normal news events is not significant across all indices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:639–659, 2012