Global Risk Factors and the Prediction of Recidivism Rates in a Sample of First-Time Misdemeanant Offenders

• Published in: International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology Vol. 52; no. 3; pp. 330 - 345
• Main Authors: Gavazzi, Stephen M., Yarcheck, Courtney M., Sullivan, Jason M., Jones, Sheri C., Khurana, Atika
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01-06-2008; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Accountability; Adolescent; African Americans; Caregivers; Discrimination; Educational Status; Educational Systems; Family characteristics; Family Violence; Female; Health Problems; Health risks; High risk; Humans; Juvenile Delinquency; Male; Males; Mental health; Motivation; Offenders; Offending; Ohio; Peers; Race; Racism; Recidivism; Recurrence; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Social Responsibility; Substance abuse; Supervision; Trauma; Youth; Ohio; Africa; delinquency; recidivism; assessment; juvenile justice; dynamic factors
• ISSN: 0306-624X; 1552-6933
• DOI: 10.1177/0306624X07305481

This article examines the prediction of recidivism using the Global Risk Assessment Device (GRAD), a reliable and valid measure of dynamic factors associated with family characteristics, peers, mental health, substance abuse, trauma exposure, educational concerns, accountability, and health risks. Using a sample of adult caregivers of first-time misdemeanant offenders, two factors—education and accountability—were significantly associated with recidivistic behavior, supporting the use of GRAD data in correctly identifying first-time offenders who have the greatest and the least likelihood for future offending behavior. Additional analyses utilizing parent reports on African American males indicate that the GRAD provides discrimination in the prediction of recidivism in a group typically seen as being high risk simply because of their gender and race. The assessment drives intervention approach of the GRAD is discussed in terms of using reports from adults to accurately place youth into appropriate levels of supervision and treatment.