Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data

• Published in: The Review of economic studies Vol. 82; no. 1 (290); pp. 333 - 359
• Main Authors: PARAVISINI, DANIEL, RAPPOPORT, VERONICA, SCHNABL, PHILIPP, WOLFENZON, DANIEL
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Oxford University Press 01-01-2015
• Subjects: Capital movement; Capital movements; Comparative analysis; Comparative studies; Economic crisis; Elasticity; Exports; Impact analysis; Peru; Trade finance; Peru
• ISSN: 0034-6527; 1467-937X
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdu028

We estimate the elasticity of exports to credit using matched customs and firm-level bank credit data from Peru. To account for non-credit determinants of exports, we compare changes in exports of the same product and to the same destination by firms borrowing from banks differentially affected by capital-flow reversals during the 2008 financial crisis. We find that credit shocks affect the intensive margin of exports, but have no significant impact on entry or exit of firms to new product and destination markets. Our results suggest that credit shortages reduce exports through raising the variable cost of production, rather than the cost of financing sunk entry investments.