Stochastic bio-economic optimization of pond size for intensive commercial production of whiteleg shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

• Published in: Aquaculture Vol. 433; pp. 496 - 503
• Main Authors: Gonzalez-Romero, Miguel A., Hernandez-Llamas, Alfredo, Ruiz-Velazco, Javier M.J., Plascencia-Cuevas, Tania N., Nieto-Navarro, Jose T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 20-09-2014; Elsevier; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal aquaculture; Animal productions; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Aquaculture; Bioeconomics; Biological and medical sciences; Biomass; Crustacea; Crustaceans; Fresh water ecosystems; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Invertebrates; Litopenaeus vannamei; Optimization; Optimum design; Pond size; Ponds; Stochastic models; Synecology; White spot disease; Bioeconomics; Optimum design; Litopenaeus vannamei; Pond size; White spot disease; Disease; Optimization; Macrura; Crustacea; Freshwater environment; Optimum; Penaeidae; Pond; Arthropoda; Decapoda; Invertebrata; Shrimp; Aquaculture
• ISSN: 0044-8486; 1873-5622
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2014.07.010

We used a stochastic bio-economic model to define the optimum pond size for intensive, commercial production of whiteleg shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei. Optimization is based on economic performance and minimization of risk of farms (approximately 50ha each) using pond sizes from 2–8ha. Ponds of 2ha maximized Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Return per Unit Risk (RUR). Mean NPV varied from US$ −59,800 (8ha pond size and 30% interest rate) to US$ 63,300 (2ha pond size and 10% interest rate). RUR calculated for NPV varied from −7.96 (8ha pond size and 30% interest rate) to 1.79 (2ha pond size and 10% interest rate). Positive values of mean NPV and RUR were projected for pond sizes lower than 4ha (20% interest rate) and 5.5ha (10% interest rate). Negative values of mean NPV and RUR were projected for all pond sizes when the interest rate was 30%. The results, when calculating IRR and the corresponding RUR, confirmed that pond size of 2ha is optimum. Mean IRR varied from −11.76% (8ha pond size) to 25.31% (2ha pond size), and RUR varied from −2.62 (8ha pond size) to 2.87 (2ha pond size). Attractive values of mean IRR were projected for ponds smaller than 4ha when the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) was 20% and 5.5ha when the MARR was 10%. No attractive values of mean IRR were projected when the MARR was 30%. Mean negative values of IRR and RUR were projected for ponds larger than approximately 6.3ha. For ponds of 2ha, we determined that there are 95, 50, and 5% probabilities of obtaining a MARR of at least 11.8, 25.2, and 34.6%, respectively. Alternative sizes of farms composed of 2ha ponds indicated that economic risk decreased as farm size increased from 4 to 25 ponds. Despite higher construction costs, 2ha ponds are recommended because of their better economic performance, due to larger shrimp size and greater biomass at harvest.
•A bioeconomic approach was used for design optimization of intensive shrimp farms.•A relationship was established between Net Present Value (NPV) and pond size.•A relationship was established between Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and pond size.•A relationship was established between Return per Unit Risk (RUR) and pond size.•Ponds of 2ha stocked at 60–90 postlarvae m−2 maximized NPV, IRR and RUR.